Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 27 2020 | 3442 | 29473 | 121 | 12 | 884 | 988 |
| October 28 2020 | 3531 | 29610 | 123 | 12 | 896 | 1060 |
| October 29 2020 | 3656 | 29817 | 128 | 16 | 982 | 1148 |
| October 30 2020 | 3738 | 30174 | 130 | 16 | 1002 | 1180 |
| October 31 2020 | 3845 | 30345 | 132 | 17 | 1062 | 1287 |
| November 01 2020 | 3960 | 30646 | 137 | 21 | 1110 | 1325 |
| November 02 2020 | 4095 | 30734 | 138 | 21 | 1154 | 1421 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 4.7 | 4.3% | 50 | 0.43% | 69 | 0.6% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 15.4 | 14% | 162 | 1.19% | 205 | 1.51% |
| 20-29 | 21 | 21.9 | 19.8% | 228 | 1.09% | 290 | 1.39% |
| 30-39 | 34 | 19.6 | 16.8% | 194 | 1.43% | 231 | 1.7% |
| 40-49 | 18 | 11.7 | 11.4% | 132 | 1.26% | 161 | 1.54% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 15.6 | 13.7% | 158 | 1.26% | 184 | 1.47% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 10.4 | 10.5% | 121 | 1.05% | 145 | 1.26% |
| 70+ | 17 | 11.4 | 9.4% | 109 | 1.04% | 136 | 1.3% |
| All ages | 135 | 110.7 | 100% | 1154 | 1.1% | 1421 | 1.36% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 27 2020 | 1581 | 18568 | 57 | 11 | 564 | 722 |
| October 28 2020 | 1685 | 18660 | 59 | 13 | 653 | 798 |
| October 29 2020 | 1789 | 18804 | 64 | 19 | 665 | 830 |
| October 30 2020 | 1865 | 18966 | 65 | 21 | 735 | 848 |
| October 31 2020 | 1939 | 19066 | 67 | 24 | 724 | 922 |
| November 01 2020 | 1958 | 19236 | 67 | 24 | 679 | 926 |
| November 02 2020 | 2033 | 19273 | 70 | 24 | 715 | 909 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.3 | 3.1% | 22 | 0.28% | 28 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 6.7 | 8.7% | 62 | 0.74% | 74 | 0.88% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 7.9 | 11% | 79 | 1.11% | 95 | 1.34% |
| 30-39 | 21 | 12.1 | 17.8% | 127 | 1.51% | 169 | 2.01% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 12.1 | 18% | 129 | 1.66% | 159 | 2.05% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 13.0 | 17.8% | 127 | 1.31% | 160 | 1.65% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 9.7 | 14% | 100 | 1.19% | 132 | 1.57% |
| 70+ | 9 | 7.6 | 9.7% | 69 | 0.97% | 92 | 1.29% |
| All ages | 75 | 71.4 | 100% | 715 | 1.11% | 909 | 1.41% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 27 2020 | 1093 | 12014 | 45 | 6 | 363 | 448 |
| October 28 2020 | 1132 | 12115 | 48 | 7 | 351 | 454 |
| October 29 2020 | 1178 | 12188 | 49 | 7 | 375 | 477 |
| October 30 2020 | 1223 | 12338 | 49 | 7 | 396 | 493 |
| October 31 2020 | 1281 | 12394 | 52 | 7 | 423 | 551 |
| November 01 2020 | 1320 | 12555 | 54 | 7 | 425 | 539 |
| November 02 2020 | 1388 | 12569 | 61 | 7 | 457 | 585 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.6 | 3.1% | 14 | 0.26% | 16 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 4.4 | 10.5% | 48 | 0.88% | 66 | 1.22% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 5.4 | 13.6% | 62 | 1.37% | 80 | 1.77% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 7.0 | 13.3% | 61 | 1.12% | 84 | 1.55% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 6.6 | 14.2% | 65 | 1.31% | 88 | 1.77% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 7.6 | 16.2% | 74 | 1.09% | 89 | 1.31% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5.7 | 12.9% | 59 | 0.93% | 77 | 1.22% |
| 70+ | 18 | 8.9 | 16.8% | 77 | 1.22% | 88 | 1.39% |
| All ages | 68 | 46.6 | 100% | 457 | 1.01% | 585 | 1.29% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 27 2020 | 4187 | 32175 | 87 | 20 | 469 | 600 |
| October 28 2020 | 4256 | 32309 | 89 | 21 | 498 | 651 |
| October 29 2020 | 4366 | 32516 | 90 | 21 | 549 | 709 |
| October 30 2020 | 4473 | 32771 | 91 | 22 | 605 | 755 |
| October 31 2020 | 4550 | 32945 | 92 | 22 | 643 | 832 |
| November 01 2020 | 4608 | 33134 | 93 | 23 | 647 | 850 |
| November 02 2020 | 4635 | 33228 | 93 | 23 | 651 | 818 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.9 | 2.6% | 17 | 0.14% | 19 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 9.3 | 11.7% | 76 | 0.46% | 91 | 0.55% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 18.1 | 24.9% | 162 | 0.76% | 204 | 0.96% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 10.0 | 12.9% | 84 | 0.62% | 108 | 0.79% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 11.6 | 15.4% | 100 | 0.74% | 119 | 0.88% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 11.6 | 15.5% | 101 | 0.71% | 132 | 0.93% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 7.6 | 9.7% | 63 | 0.44% | 81 | 0.57% |
| 70+ | 2 | 6.0 | 7.4% | 48 | 0.37% | 64 | 0.49% |
| All ages | 27 | 76.0 | 100% | 651 | 0.55% | 818 | 0.69% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 27 2020 | 14560 | 237168 | 511 | 48 | 2264 | 2867 |
| October 28 2020 | 14929 | 237721 | 517 | 49 | 2420 | 3074 |
| October 29 2020 | 15153 | 238468 | 522 | 50 | 2637 | 3081 |
| October 30 2020 | 15521 | 239629 | 524 | 49 | 2700 | 3225 |
| October 31 2020 | 15839 | 241086 | 532 | 49 | 2718 | 3543 |
| November 01 2020 | 16011 | 242765 | 537 | 49 | 2696 | 3502 |
| November 02 2020 | 16207 | 243534 | 541 | 49 | 2652 | 3691 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 14 | 14.7 | 5.1% | 135 | 0.22% | 188 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 36.3 | 12.8% | 339 | 0.48% | 461 | 0.65% |
| 20-29 | 53 | 68.3 | 25.1% | 665 | 0.64% | 912 | 0.88% |
| 30-39 | 35 | 43.6 | 16.6% | 439 | 0.57% | 600 | 0.78% |
| 40-49 | 25 | 35.1 | 13.3% | 352 | 0.54% | 515 | 0.79% |
| 50-59 | 29 | 36.9 | 13.4% | 355 | 0.54% | 496 | 0.76% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 19.6 | 7.2% | 192 | 0.35% | 282 | 0.52% |
| 70+ | 10 | 17.3 | 6.6% | 175 | 0.36% | 237 | 0.48% |
| All ages | 196 | 271.7 | 100% | 2652 | 0.49% | 3691 | 0.68% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 27 2020 | 206311 | 1789158 | 10636 | 1852 | 40125 | 50840 |
| October 28 2020 | 210126 | 1795161 | 10810 | 1897 | 40012 | 51548 |
| October 29 2020 | 214996 | 1803465 | 11003 | 1948 | 41105 | 52671 |
| October 30 2020 | 220092 | 1817061 | 11145 | 1972 | 41610 | 53906 |
| October 31 2020 | 225370 | 1826636 | 11374 | 2031 | 42683 | 59184 |
| November 01 2020 | 228863 | 1841205 | 11497 | 2047 | 42763 | 58749 |
| November 02 2020 | 232296 | 1846618 | 11597 | 2050 | 41818 | 58405 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 140 | 167.3 | 3.8% | 1574 | 0.25% | 2201 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 365 | 469.0 | 10.3% | 4289 | 0.57% | 5879 | 0.78% |
| 20-29 | 653 | 754.7 | 17% | 7109 | 0.94% | 9901 | 1.31% |
| 30-39 | 568 | 707.6 | 15.9% | 6655 | 0.88% | 9275 | 1.23% |
| 40-49 | 499 | 649.7 | 14.8% | 6177 | 0.88% | 8629 | 1.24% |
| 50-59 | 521 | 730.0 | 16.4% | 6872 | 0.84% | 9603 | 1.18% |
| 60-69 | 325 | 522.9 | 11.7% | 4907 | 0.65% | 6904 | 0.91% |
| 70+ | 362 | 462.7 | 10.1% | 4235 | 0.66% | 6013 | 0.94% |
| All ages | 3433 | 4463.9 | 100% | 41818 | 0.72% | 58405 | 1% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 135.8 | 150.7 | 138.6 | 110.7 | 48.9 | 31.2% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140.6 | 71.4 | 45.7 | 36.1% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129.3 | 46.6 | 27.7 | 34.7% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69.2 | 55 | 95.9 | 76 | 43.4 | 28.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67.5 | 64.9 | 87.8 | 271.7 | 177.6 | 20% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.3 | 77.7 | 130.8 | 4463.9 | 3396.4 | 31.3% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 12.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.42 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-23 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2072"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges